Bitcoin’s price has experienced a significant decline in recent weeks, signaling a bear market. Last week, BTC dropped to its lowest point since February, reaching $53,540. However, it has since recovered some of its losses and is currently trading at $57,200. This price movement has sparked a divide among crypto experts, with some maintaining a bullish outlook and expecting the recent sell-off to be short-lived.
According to a Standard Chartered analyst, Bitcoin is projected to surpass $100,000 by the end of the year, representing a potential 75% gain from its current level. This optimistic view is based on the ongoing institutional demand for Bitcoin and the potential regulatory support promised by Donald Trump, who has received campaign financing from prominent figures in the crypto industry such as the Winklevoss Twins and Jesse Powell, the founder of Kraken.
Another notable figure in the crypto community, Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, believes that the bullish cycle remains intact. While he anticipates a potential drop to $47,000, he foresees a continued bull run into next year, with Bitcoin rising to $112,000.
Several analysts have identified additional factors that could contribute to a resumption of the bullish trend for Bitcoin. One such factor is the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing interest rate cuts following last week’s jobs data, which revealed an addition of over 200,000 jobs to the economy but also saw the unemployment rate rise to 4.1%. Citigroup and ING analysts predict that the Fed will initiate rate cuts in September. These rate cuts are viewed as favorable for Bitcoin, particularly considering the significant amount of money invested in money market funds, which could potentially be redirected towards riskier assets like tech stocks and Bitcoin.
On the other hand, some crypto analysts argue that Bitcoin’s price could continue to decline. They highlight the coin’s drop below the neckline of a double top pattern, indicating the possibility of further downside as traders target the key support level at $44,000. The ongoing liquidations by the German government, Mt. Gox wallets, whale activity, and Bitcoin miner capitulation are also cited as bearish factors. For instance, a Bitcoin whale deposited $45.18 million to Binance on Monday and has moved coins worth $468 million since June 27th, according to LookOnChain.
Examining the charts, it becomes evident that Bitcoin is facing various risks, including the double-top pattern at $72,000. It has also fallen below the 200-day moving average and retested the neckline of the double top at $56,000. Consequently, the recent rebound in price could be a temporary recovery known as a dead cat bounce, which could lead to further decline in the near term. If this scenario unfolds, the next significant support level to watch would be $44,000. However, in the long run, there is a possibility of Bitcoin rebounding to surpass $100,000.