As Bitcoin reaches the $70K mark, the question on everyone’s mind is whether $100K will be the next milestone. The future path of Bitcoin will be influenced by various factors such as the upcoming U.S. election, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and market sentiment.
Bitcoin has been on a bullish run, experiencing a 2% gain in the past week due to the “Uptober” effect in the crypto market. It is currently trading at $67,100, its highest level since late July. Although it briefly touched $69,500 before retracing, the overall sentiment in the market is shifting towards “greed” according to the crypto fear and greed index. This is a significant contrast to the fear-dominated market in September.
The upcoming U.S. presidential election on November 5 is also contributing to the optimistic outlook for Bitcoin. Former President Donald Trump, who has proposed crypto-friendly policies, is gaining momentum in the polls. Many investors believe that a potential win for Trump could propel Bitcoin to new heights as his policies are seen as beneficial for the crypto industry.
One major development that is set to have a positive impact on the Bitcoin market is the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This rule change allows the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange to offer options trading for several spot Bitcoin ETFs. This move is expected to increase liquidity and create smoother price movements in the crypto space. Some of the big names affected by this change include Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC), Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB), Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB).
The approval of these options is expected to have a significant impact as it will provide broader access to crypto for a wider range of participants, from institutional players to everyday investors. This comes at a time when Bitcoin ETFs have seen a surge in inflows, with over $2.13 billion in inflows in the week ending October 18, pushing total assets under management to $52 billion. This strong performance indicates growing investor confidence in crypto.
In terms of price movement, Bitcoin is currently in what crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe calls the “Boring Zone.” While Bitcoin consolidates around the $68,000 level, altcoins have started to show signs of recovery. This phase is seen as a period of building momentum beneath the surface, similar to a coiled spring waiting for a jolt of liquidity. In the past, such periods have led to significant upward movements in Bitcoin’s price as investors re-enter the market.
On the technical front, the market value to realized value momentum indicator has recently turned bullish. This indicator compares Bitcoin’s current price to the price at which most BTC was last moved. When it flashes bullish, it is often an early sign of more price gains to come. It indicates that investors are holding onto their Bitcoin, reducing selling pressure and making upward momentum easier to sustain.
Another positive sign is the rise in Bitcoin CME Futures Open Interest, which recently reached an all-time high of $12 billion. This increase in open interest suggests that more traders are placing bets on Bitcoin’s future price movement. However, higher open interest can also lead to increased volatility, especially if a significant number of traders are on the same side of the trade.
Macroeconomic factors such as the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates also play a role in Bitcoin’s price movement. A Trump victory is seen as favorable for Bitcoin, providing regulatory clarity and support for the industry. On the other hand, the market reaction to a Kamala Harris win is uncertain due to her unclear stance on crypto. Additionally, a rate cut by the Federal Reserve could inject more liquidity into the economy, benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin.
With all these factors in mind, crypto analysts have different predictions for Bitcoin’s next target. One analyst believes it could reach $98,000, while another suggests a range between $90,000 and $160,000. As Bitcoin gains strength around the $70K mark, the next major resistance could be at $90K. If it breaks through that level with strong momentum, it could quickly accelerate towards $100K and beyond.
However, investors should remain cautious and monitor both technical indicators and broader economic indicators to gauge Bitcoin’s next move. It is essential to trade wisely and never invest more than one can afford to lose.