Bitcoin price held steady above $80,000 as crypto and stock investors remained cautious ahead of Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariff speech.
Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $84,500, up 10% from its March low. Meanwhile, U.S. stock market futures pointed lower, with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 dropping by over 300 points.
Trump Liberation Day is here
The main catalyst for Bitcoin, altcoins, and the stock market will be Trump’s Liberation Day speech at the Rose Garden. In this address, he is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs on most countries, including the European Union, China, India, and Japan.
Analysts warn that these tariffs could lead to a major recession this year. Goldman Sachs and PIMCO have raised their recession odds to 35%. A downturn would likely result from slowing business investment and weakening consumer spending.
In theory, Bitcoin price should decline once Trump announces the tariffs. However, in practice, BTC and the stock market may bounce back.
There are three main reasons for this. First, the Liberation Day tariffs have already been priced in by market participants, as Trump has been discussing them for weeks. As such, the market may “buy the fact” once the announcement is made.
A good example is how Bitcoin’s price jumped to a record high ahead of Trump’s inauguration and then dropped after he became president.
Second, Bitcoin has weathered major challenges in the past. It not only survived but thrived during the COVID-19 pandemic and the difficult regulatory era under SEC Chair Gary Gensler. In an emailed note to ethdaily.net, Gadi Chait, an investment manager at Xapo, downplayed the current fear:
“These price swings may rattle speculators, but ultimately, this is just noise. Bitcoin has always been and always will be a long-term play; its value lies in its inherent sovereignty, decentralisation, and finite nature, not short-term volatility. We’ve been here before, and we’ll likely be here again, but Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory remains undeniable.”
Finally, a recession could actually be bullish for Bitcoin and other risk assets, as it may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and reintroduce quantitative easing.
Bitcoin price has strong technicals
The weekly chart shows that Bitcoin continues to exhibit strong technicals. It has formed an ascending channel and currently sits near its lower bound. The last time it touched this level was in August last year, and it rebounded to a new all-time high shortly after.
Bitcoin has also remained above the 50-week moving average, another bullish sign. As such, BTC will likely bounce back and possibly hit $100,000 in the coming weeks. A break below the lower side of the channel would invalidate the bullish outlook.