Bloomberg analysts have projected 75% to 90% approval chances for the key exchange-traded fund applications currently under review, but mounting delays from the SEC are pushing final decisions further into 2025.
Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have recently released their latest projections on the likelihood of approval for various ETFs currently under review by the SEC.
Spot ETFs for Litecoin (LTC), Solana (SOL), and crypto Baskets/Indexes (including conversions like Grayscale’s GBTC) have the highest chances of approval in 2025—each assigned a 90% likelihood. The SEC’s favorable view of LTC and SOL as commodities, coupled with their ties to regulated futures markets, has likely contributed to these optimistic projections. All three have already had their 19b-4 forms acknowledged, with final SEC deadlines ranging from July to October this year.
Ripple (XRP) holds a slightly lower 85% chance of approval. The eventual outcome for XRP is still likely tied to how regulators categorize it—particularly after the CFTC’s April 21 announcement that it considers XRP a regulated asset for futures markets.
Dogecoin (DOGE) and Hedera (HBAR) are each assigned an 80% chance of approval. Avalanche (AVAX), Cardano (ADA) and Polkadot (DOT) trail slightly behind with a 75% chance of approval.
“Would love to hear directly from Atkins, but all have a good chance of happening,” Balchunas wrote on X.
While approval odds are rather high for most filings, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission continues to issue delays across the crypto ETF landscape. On April 29, the SEC postponed decisions on several applications: Franklin Templeton’s spot Solana ETF, now facing a final deadline of Oct. 7, and its spot XRP ETF, with a deadline of Nov 5. Grayscale’s spot Hedera ETF and Bitwise’s Dogecoin ETF were also delayed, both now set for final rulings by Oct. 8. In addition, the SEC deferred a decision on the staking provisions tied to Fidelity’s spot Ethereum ETF, though a final deadline for that proposal has yet to be announced.
On April 24, the SEC had also delayed decisions on Bitwise’s spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs, as well as Canary Capital’s Hedera ETF. The new deadlines for those filings are set for June 10 and June 11, respectively.